December 16, 2010
NCSL's Annual Policy Forecast: Tough Issues
Await Nationfs State Legislators
Top 11 issues of 2011: Fourth consecutive
year fiscal conditions will dominate legislative
sessions
The November election brought party change to
a quarter of state legislatures across the
country. But the hundreds of new state lawmakers
may hear from their veteran colleagues
that at least one thing has not
changed: The sluggish economy is going to
control the new yearfs legislative agenda
once again.
"Money is the starting and stopping point for
virtually every state program and service. Based
on our latest 'State Budget Report,' we are
expecting that budget cuts will again be deep,
controversial and painful," says William T.
Pound, executive director of the National
Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL).
NCSL's Top 11 of 2011 is an annual list that
examines the pressing and important topics on
state legislative agendas. State budgets top the
list for a fourth year in a row, followed by
pensions, business development, implementing and
interpreting health reform, and higher
education. Legislatures also have their work cut
out for them dealing with redistricting,
foreclosures, release of prisoners, and K2
synthetic marijuana.
Top 11 for 2011:
Issue #1 - Balancing
Budgets
The worst may be yet to come
for state budgets. Although the Great Recession
officially ended in June 2009, state budgets are
far from reaching sound fiscal footing. NCSLfs
report, "State Budget Update: November 2010,"
shows some states are still facing ongoing
shortfalls because of weak revenue
performance, less than anticipated federal
funding for Medicaid, and expenditure overruns.
Through Nov. 15 states have reported new FY 2011
budget gaps totaling at least $26.7 billion.
This is on top of the $83.9 billion gap already
resolved this fiscal year. More gaps loom as
state policymakers prepare to craft their FY
2012 budgets. Although state revenue
performance appears to be improving, the
expected growth wonft be enough to replace
federal stimulus funds that helped balance
current budgets.
Issue #2 - Reforming State
Pensions
Many states fall short of
having adequate funding for the future benefits
promised for pensions and retiree health care.
How they address those issues has implications
for state personnel management and delivery of
state services, as well as for the budget. Many
states addressed these issues, at least in part,
in 2010; many more are studying them in
preparation for legislation in 2011.
Issue #3 - Jobs for American
Workers
The economic downturn
has compromised the financial security of
millions of working families. Economists
agree job creation is the key component to
a sustained economic recovery. Lawmakers are
looking for more efficient and innovative ways
to create jobs and encourage business
development, by offering incentives, providing
tax credits, training workers and
encouraging small business growth through
public-private partnerships.
Issue #4 - Interpreting and
Implementing Health Reform
The
federal Affordable Care Act changes how
large segments of the American health system
will work. States pioneered most of the
provisions included in the 900+ page law that
aims to expand coverage to 32 million more
Americans. State budget shortfalls, changes in
leadership, worries about affordable coverage,
and a lengthy list of policy options and
decisions facing states guarantee a busy
legislative health agenda in 2011. Eight
states, so far, are using state law to avoid
enforcing mandatory features of the law while
others are considering a retreat from costly
Medicaid features.
Issue #5 - Redesigning Higher
Education
A major shift in political
philosophy toward higher education may be on the
horizon. After several years of cutbacks to help
balance the budget, the state contribution to
higher education is at such a low point that a
new relationship between the state and public
higher education is on the
horizon. Institutions want more
flexibility; states want to link funding to
results such as graduation rates. There
will be some discussions over "privatizing"
public higher education, given diminished state
support, but raising tuition
and cutting support for low-income and
minority students are other possbile policy
options. State institutions are looking for
alternative revenue sources, including tax
increases, to prevent drastic cuts.
Issue #6 - Redrawing
Districts
At the start of each
decade, districts are redrawn for state
legislatures and Congress. Redistricting is very
complex, and can take a lot of energy from state
legislators already focused on traditional
policy areas. Once states
receive census data in February and March,
all but two states will draw new district
boundaries before holding legislative and
congressional elections in 2011 and 2012.
The success in 2010 November elections by
Republicans at the state level now gives them a
decided advantage in this redistricting
cycle.
Issue #7 - Lowering Unemployment and
Funding Benefits
While the national
unemployment rate has remained around 9
percent all year, a dozen states have been
battling double-digit rates. States are
dealing with unprecedented claims for
unemployment benefits. Thirty-one
states have had to borrow from the Federal
Unemployment Trust Fund, and now must deal with
paying back their loans, along
with steep interest payments. States have
responded to the crisis by increasing their
payroll taxes and the upping the taxable wage
base. Finding a solution to unemployment
and shoring up the state-federal partnership in
funding benefits is a key issue for 2011.
Issue #8 - Improving Public
Safety
Addressing safety concerns
for American citizens in 2011 will focus on
sentencing, corrections and offender reentry
policies. All of these issues come with a price
tag, so lawmakers will be looking to
control costs by using safe, yet
cost-effective, approaches. Providing better
supervision and services as offenders
reenter the community have been a focus
of recent state sentencing and corrections
policies. At least 15 states, D.C. and Puerto
Rico addressed barriers to successful
reentry, such as finding employment
and receiving public benefits.Task forces or
study commissions in at least 23 states are
expected to look at suitable sentencing,
offender supervision and use of corrections
resources.
Issue #9 – Improving Student
Achievement and Dropout Rates
To
address high dropout rates and boost student
achievement, state legislators are focusing
on two policy objectives: Iimproving
high school success and recruiting, preparing
and supporting effective teachers and
principals. With better ways to track
graduation rates, state lawmakers are increasing
the dialogue and urgency around the issue. They
are considering evaluating teachers and
principals based on their students' achievement,
and dramatically revamping teacher and principal
preparation, licensure, professional
development, compensation and tenure.
Issue #10 - Addressing
Immigration
While the federal
government remains gridlocked over immigration
reform, state legislatures continue to address
this complex and challenging issue. State
legislatures enacted a record number of laws and
resolutions addressing both legal and illegal
immigration issues in 2010, with every state in
regular session enacting
legislation. Arizonafs two immigration
enforcement laws on worksite enforcement
(2007) and law enforcement (2010) have been
challenged, and are under review by the U.S.
Supreme Court and the 9th Circuit Court of
Appeals, respectively. In light of budget
constraints and the potential for litigation,
states may delay enacting new immigration
enforcement laws until the fate of Arizona's
worksite and law enforcement laws are decided by
the courts.
Issue #11 - Maintaining
Transportation and
Infrastructure
State are now seeing
the end of federal stimulus money for state
transportation projects. This could spell
trouble for road projects, coupled with the fact
that a continuing decline in income from the gas
tax leaves a widening gap between available
revenue and actual money needed for
infrastructure maintenance and new
transportation projects. With little
appetite for raising transportation fees and
taxes, lawmakers will be forced to cut their
transportation budgets or consider legislation
to establish public-private partnerships
and other innovative funding
approaches. States continue to await a
sweeping new federal transportation
reauthorization that could supply new money and
potentially change the way federal funds are
distributed.
Other issues state legislators will be
keeping an eye on during 2011 legislative
sessions include:
Foreclosures: Although
delinquent mortgage payments are falling,
homeowners entering foreclosure continue to
rise, affecting prime and FHA loans. As the
economy recovers slowly, state legislators and
other policymakers will be watching to see if
foreclosure mediation and other programs
designed to help homeowners are actually working
to keep people in their homes. They'll also
be looking at what can be done with the
empty and abandoned homes to prevent
neighborhood blight.
Drug-Crime Policy - In
recent years some states have eased penalties
for lower-level drug offenses while stiffening
penalties for drug manufacturing, trafficking
and selling to minors. And, as new forms of
drugs are being abused, state legislatures are
updating criminal law to address them. In 2010,
at least 11 state legislatures banned the use of
synthetic cannabinoids, which are chemically
engineered substances used to give people a
similar high as marijuana. They are also known
on the street as gK2h, gSpice,h and
gGenie.h
Medical
Malpractice/Liability - In December
2009, the Congressional Budget Office estimated
that changes to medical liability laws
nationally would reduce the federal budget
deficit by about $54 billion between the years
2010 and 2019. One issue largely left out of
recent federal health reform was the issue of
medical liability and malpractice, but the
Affordable Care Act does authorize demonstration
projects by the states.
The Top 11 of 2011 list was compiled through
discussions with NCSL's policy experts,
executive committee and standing committees.
This list is not reflective of every issue
legislatures will grapple with during the
upcoming year, but rather an overview of some of
the top issues expected to cross state lines and
be dominant themes next year in state
legislative sessions. Take this list to your own
state lawmakers and see if they agree, or use
this list to explore what the Top 11 issues
might be in your state in 2011.
NCSL is a bipartisan organization that serves
the legislators and staffs of the states,
commonwealths and territories. It provides
research, technical assistance and opportunities
for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most
pressing state issues and is an effective and
respected advocate for the interests of the
states in the American federal
system.
©2010 National Conference
of State Legislatures. All Rights Reserved.